[JoseFidencioR]

No se, tiendo mas a creerle a la fuente que a la interpretacion... y esto dice la interpretacion FUENTE... no es un evento global, sino que se centra en la bahia de california, y no predice fecha, sino que espera un incremento de temblores, de 6 a 7 de magnitud... en esa zona son frecuentes los temblores de 3 a 4 de magnitud.





The Hayward Fault in San Francisco’s East Bay area is one such fault. It last slipped in 1868, and experiences major earthquakes (6.5-7.1 moment-magnitude) every 161 ± 65 years, yet the surface fault slips steadily at 3 to 9 millimeters per year. Much of the surface fault has slipped 1 meter since 1868. For the past two decades, CIRES, with funding from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), has been monitoring surface creep at five locations on the Hayward Fault. Steady slip in Fremont at 6.9 millimeters per year occurs at rates of less than 1 micrometer per hour in the uppermost hundred meters of the fault, interrupted at several-month intervals by approximately 1.5-millimeter amplitude creep-events, each lasting a few hours, signifying slip in the uppermost 3 to 5 kilometers of the fault. Fluctuations in rate in the past two decades have been caused by local earthquakes (Lienkaemper et al, 2013).
Realizing that a magnitude 7 earthquake will soon occur on the fault, we have devised a new sensor designed to capture both slow slip and catastrophic rupture. A tensioned flexible wire fastened obliquely across the fault is wrapped around a 30-centimer circumference wheel. Slip on the fault pulls the cable and rotates the wheel whose angular position is monitored by a Hall effect sensor. The sensor has a sub-millimeter resolution per turn, and 10 turns realizes a range of up to 3 meters—more than adequate to capture the 1 to 2 meters of slip anticipated on the Hayward Fault during the forthcoming earthquake. Cumulative slip is telemetered



Each line represents the slip at 15-km intervals along the Hayward Fault in California, in the past two decades: from south (Fremont 12 cm) to north (Pinole 8 cm). The creepmeters register small annual variations caused by seasonal temperature changes, but accelerated creep near Oakland and Temescal followed small (magnitude 4) local earthquakes. Creep events occur several times each year at Fremont. The sensors are now supplemented with 3-m range sensors to capture co-seismic