03 Jan, 2021, 08:54 AM
Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development 2010, el "escenario" pandémico del sector privado.
![[Imagen: Rockefeller-Foundation-678x381.jpg]](https://frenteporlaverdad.cs.gt/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Rockefeller-Foundation-678x381.jpg)
Hasta aquí hemos visto los ejercicios pandémicos liderados por el gobierno de Estados Unidos y otros países, la OMS y la Universidad John Hopkins. Sin embargo, antes de pasar a revisar el último simulacro pandémico de 2019, veremos lo que la Rockefeller Foundation concluyó en 2010 respecto a una eventual pandemia en su documento Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development, bajo el encabezado "Narrativas de Escenario, Confinamiento Escalonado (Lock Step)" página 18:
In 2012, the pandemic that the world had been
anticipating for years finally hit. Unlike 2009’s
H1N1, this new influenza strain—originating
from wild geese—was extremely virulent and
deadly. Even the most pandemic-prepared
nations were quickly overwhelmed when the
virus streaked around the world, infecting nearly
20 percent of the global population and killing
8 million in just seven months, the majority of
them healthy young adults. The pandemic also
had a deadly effect on economies: international
mobility of both people and goods screeched to
a halt, debilitating industries like tourism and
breaking global supply chains. Even locally,
normally bustling shops and office buildings sat
empty for months, devoid of both employees
and customers.
The pandemic blanketed the planet—though
disproportionate numbers died in Africa,
Southeast Asia, and Central America, where
the virus spread like wildfire in the absence
of official containment protocols. But even
in developed countries, containment was a
challenge. The United States’s initial policy of
“strongly discouraging” citizens from flying
proved deadly in its leniency, accelerating the
spread of the virus not just within the U.S. but
across borders. However, a few countries did
fare better—China in particular. The Chinese
government’s quick imposition and enforcement
of mandatory quarantine for all citizens, as well
as its instant and near-hermetic sealing off of
all borders, saved millions of lives, stopping
the spread of the virus far earlier than in other
countries and enabling a swifter postpandemic recovery.
Como este es un análisis del sector privado, hay interesantes presagios respecto a la economía en un escenario pandémico: Se detiene la movilidad internacional de personas y bienes, el turismo se debilita y se quiebra la cadena de suministros. Tiendas y oficinas quedan vacías por meses... ¡Todo por una "nueva influenza" originada por... gansos!
Luego hay una curiosa comparación entre Estados Unidos y China respecto al manejo de la pandemia: Se critica a Estados Unidos por su débil política de llamar fuertemente a no volar... mientras alaba a China por establecer una rápida cuarentena para todos sus ciudadanos, sellando herméticamente todas sus fronteras y salvando millones de vidas... Todo esto, por supuesto en un escenario de gripe de gansos en 2012... Sigamos:
China’s government was not the only one that
took extreme measures to protect its citizens
from risk and exposure. During the pandemic,
national leaders around the world flexed their
authority and imposed airtight rules and
restrictions, from the mandatory wearing of face
masks to body-temperature checks at the entries
to communal spaces like train stations and
supermarkets. Even after the pandemic faded,
this more authoritarian control and oversight
of citizens and their activities stuck and even
intensified. In order to protect themselves from
the spread of increasingly global problems—from
pandemics and transnational terrorism to
environmental crises and rising poverty—leaders
around the world took a firmer grip on power.
At first, the notion of a more controlled world
gained wide acceptance and approval. Citizens
willingly gave up some of their sovereignty—and
their privacy—to more paternalistic states
in exchange for greater safety and stability.
Citizens were more tolerant, and even eager, for
top-down direction and oversight, and national
leaders had more latitude to impose order in the
ways they saw fit. In developed countries, this
heightened oversight took many forms: biometric
IDs for all citizens, for example, and tighter
regulation of key industries whose stability
was deemed vital to national interests. In many
developed countries, enforced cooperation with a
suite of new regulations and agreements slowly
but steadily restored both order and, importantly,
economic growth.
Across the developing world, however, the
story was different—and much more variable.
Top-down authority took different forms
in different countries, hinging largely on
the capacity, caliber, and intentions of their
leaders. In countries with strong and thoughtful
leaders, citizens’ overall economic status
and quality of life increased. In India, for
example, air quality drastically improved after
2016, when the government outlawed highemitting vehicles. In Ghana, the introduction
of ambitious government programs to improve
basic infrastructure and ensure the availability
of clean water for all her people led to a sharp
decline in water-borne diseases. But more
authoritarian leadership worked less well—and
in some cases tragically—in countries run by
irresponsible elites who used their increased
power to pursue their own interests at the
expense of their citizens.
![[Imagen: Surveilance.png]](https://blog.world-mysteries.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Surveilance.png)
Es curioso que la Fundación Rockefeller alabe las restricciones que se impondrían 10 años después: uso obligatorio de mascarillas, toma de temperatura en estaciones y supermercados... Esta fundación sabía muy bien el efecto que puede tener una "pandemia" entre el ciudadano común: entrega voluntaria de algo de su soberanía y privacidad... Se anticipa la identificación biométrica para todos los ciudadanos (que no es lo mismo que portar un teléfono celular, tú lo dejas en casa y ya... pero ahora siempre debes andar con tu ID, informando al Estado donde estás en cada momento). También se anticipa la clasificación de la industria entre "vital" y la que no lo es (esencial y no esencial, como en la Alemania Nazi).
Luego se habla de lo que sucedería en países subdesarrollados, pero bien administrados, como la India y Ghana. En ambos la pandemia parece mejorar el ambiente, en uno mejora la calidad del aire y en el otro la del agua.
Les dejaré el documento completo por si lo desean leer, pues tiene otros detalles respecto al proteccionismo que se pronostica surgirá en materias tecnológicas ente Rusia, India, US y UE, rezagando más a los países en vías de desarrollo. Pero concluyo con esta predicción aún no cumplida y algo esperanzadora:
By 2025, people seemed to be growing weary of
so much top-down control and letting leaders
and authorities make choices for them.
Para 2025, la gente parecía estar cansada de
tanto control de arriba a abajo y de permitir que los líderes
y las autoridades toman decisiones por ellos.
Documento Original: https://www.nommeraadio.ee/meedia/pdf/RR...dation.pdf
Traducción al español:
https://el-paradigma-civilitzador.es/wp-...dation.pdf
PD: Si JFidencio u otro forista me podría indicar cómo incorporar archivos PDF al post, se lo agradecería mucho.
Hasta aquí hemos visto los ejercicios pandémicos liderados por el gobierno de Estados Unidos y otros países, la OMS y la Universidad John Hopkins. Sin embargo, antes de pasar a revisar el último simulacro pandémico de 2019, veremos lo que la Rockefeller Foundation concluyó en 2010 respecto a una eventual pandemia en su documento Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development, bajo el encabezado "Narrativas de Escenario, Confinamiento Escalonado (Lock Step)" página 18:
In 2012, the pandemic that the world had been
anticipating for years finally hit. Unlike 2009’s
H1N1, this new influenza strain—originating
from wild geese—was extremely virulent and
deadly. Even the most pandemic-prepared
nations were quickly overwhelmed when the
virus streaked around the world, infecting nearly
20 percent of the global population and killing
8 million in just seven months, the majority of
them healthy young adults. The pandemic also
had a deadly effect on economies: international
mobility of both people and goods screeched to
a halt, debilitating industries like tourism and
breaking global supply chains. Even locally,
normally bustling shops and office buildings sat
empty for months, devoid of both employees
and customers.
The pandemic blanketed the planet—though
disproportionate numbers died in Africa,
Southeast Asia, and Central America, where
the virus spread like wildfire in the absence
of official containment protocols. But even
in developed countries, containment was a
challenge. The United States’s initial policy of
“strongly discouraging” citizens from flying
proved deadly in its leniency, accelerating the
spread of the virus not just within the U.S. but
across borders. However, a few countries did
fare better—China in particular. The Chinese
government’s quick imposition and enforcement
of mandatory quarantine for all citizens, as well
as its instant and near-hermetic sealing off of
all borders, saved millions of lives, stopping
the spread of the virus far earlier than in other
countries and enabling a swifter postpandemic recovery.
Como este es un análisis del sector privado, hay interesantes presagios respecto a la economía en un escenario pandémico: Se detiene la movilidad internacional de personas y bienes, el turismo se debilita y se quiebra la cadena de suministros. Tiendas y oficinas quedan vacías por meses... ¡Todo por una "nueva influenza" originada por... gansos!
Luego hay una curiosa comparación entre Estados Unidos y China respecto al manejo de la pandemia: Se critica a Estados Unidos por su débil política de llamar fuertemente a no volar... mientras alaba a China por establecer una rápida cuarentena para todos sus ciudadanos, sellando herméticamente todas sus fronteras y salvando millones de vidas... Todo esto, por supuesto en un escenario de gripe de gansos en 2012... Sigamos:
China’s government was not the only one that
took extreme measures to protect its citizens
from risk and exposure. During the pandemic,
national leaders around the world flexed their
authority and imposed airtight rules and
restrictions, from the mandatory wearing of face
masks to body-temperature checks at the entries
to communal spaces like train stations and
supermarkets. Even after the pandemic faded,
this more authoritarian control and oversight
of citizens and their activities stuck and even
intensified. In order to protect themselves from
the spread of increasingly global problems—from
pandemics and transnational terrorism to
environmental crises and rising poverty—leaders
around the world took a firmer grip on power.
At first, the notion of a more controlled world
gained wide acceptance and approval. Citizens
willingly gave up some of their sovereignty—and
their privacy—to more paternalistic states
in exchange for greater safety and stability.
Citizens were more tolerant, and even eager, for
top-down direction and oversight, and national
leaders had more latitude to impose order in the
ways they saw fit. In developed countries, this
heightened oversight took many forms: biometric
IDs for all citizens, for example, and tighter
regulation of key industries whose stability
was deemed vital to national interests. In many
developed countries, enforced cooperation with a
suite of new regulations and agreements slowly
but steadily restored both order and, importantly,
economic growth.
Across the developing world, however, the
story was different—and much more variable.
Top-down authority took different forms
in different countries, hinging largely on
the capacity, caliber, and intentions of their
leaders. In countries with strong and thoughtful
leaders, citizens’ overall economic status
and quality of life increased. In India, for
example, air quality drastically improved after
2016, when the government outlawed highemitting vehicles. In Ghana, the introduction
of ambitious government programs to improve
basic infrastructure and ensure the availability
of clean water for all her people led to a sharp
decline in water-borne diseases. But more
authoritarian leadership worked less well—and
in some cases tragically—in countries run by
irresponsible elites who used their increased
power to pursue their own interests at the
expense of their citizens.
Es curioso que la Fundación Rockefeller alabe las restricciones que se impondrían 10 años después: uso obligatorio de mascarillas, toma de temperatura en estaciones y supermercados... Esta fundación sabía muy bien el efecto que puede tener una "pandemia" entre el ciudadano común: entrega voluntaria de algo de su soberanía y privacidad... Se anticipa la identificación biométrica para todos los ciudadanos (que no es lo mismo que portar un teléfono celular, tú lo dejas en casa y ya... pero ahora siempre debes andar con tu ID, informando al Estado donde estás en cada momento). También se anticipa la clasificación de la industria entre "vital" y la que no lo es (esencial y no esencial, como en la Alemania Nazi).
Luego se habla de lo que sucedería en países subdesarrollados, pero bien administrados, como la India y Ghana. En ambos la pandemia parece mejorar el ambiente, en uno mejora la calidad del aire y en el otro la del agua.
Les dejaré el documento completo por si lo desean leer, pues tiene otros detalles respecto al proteccionismo que se pronostica surgirá en materias tecnológicas ente Rusia, India, US y UE, rezagando más a los países en vías de desarrollo. Pero concluyo con esta predicción aún no cumplida y algo esperanzadora:
By 2025, people seemed to be growing weary of
so much top-down control and letting leaders
and authorities make choices for them.
Para 2025, la gente parecía estar cansada de
tanto control de arriba a abajo y de permitir que los líderes
y las autoridades toman decisiones por ellos.
Documento Original: https://www.nommeraadio.ee/meedia/pdf/RR...dation.pdf
Traducción al español:
https://el-paradigma-civilitzador.es/wp-...dation.pdf
PD: Si JFidencio u otro forista me podría indicar cómo incorporar archivos PDF al post, se lo agradecería mucho.
"Igne natura renovatur integra".
